Orban's divisie rhetoric and tricks explained - it won't work anymore

Seeing through Fidesz's right wing deception: the trick the Republicans, the Conservatices, Le Pen and now Orban employs

Hungary is descending further and further into the abyss under Orban. Economically only the EU subsidies keep the country afloat. Recently to keep his campaigning - entirely based on artificial fear from migration - Orban's government even stopped feeding those who apply for a refugee permit. This procedure can last for days. They try to tell people to leave before an official decision has been made, thereby basically cancelling out their application. As inhumane and evil as it can get.

Luckily, more and more people are starting to understand the communication strategy of Orban's Fidesz. And besides communication there is nothing that keeps them afloat. Orban gets support basically for reiterating every week a nice, romantic, nationalist fairy tale to his voters.
I describe here this strategy, give some examples, and tell you how to avoid falling for it.

This fairy tale is based on the schematics that there is always a new challenge or threat to Hungary. The evil person, the source of the threat is always portrayed by Fidesz as someone who is or can legitimately challenge Orban's rule, or who points out real faults with it. Such institutions and people get depicted as the evil ones and Fidesz as the saviors. Fidesz repeates its lies so often at every possible time that after a period people start discussing non-existent issues. They forget that the issue doesn't exist and start behaving as if it would.

For example Fidesz started talking of 'the liberals'. There is and never was a unified camp either in politics or among voters in Hungary that could have been identified meaningfully as such. But they repeated this lie often enough and it stuck. Now many journalists and opposition people debate as if they would be liberals and the issue would be to show that Fidesz is wrong about liberals, or that liberals and right and Fidesz is wrong.

But more and more people see it now that the correct solution is simply to point out that Fidesz is lying in the first place. There are no liberals. The problem they are talking about doesn't exist. And hence, they are just bullshitting very expensively at the voters' money instead of working.

There is a simple method to counter the effects of this rhetoric. Every time Orban, Le Pen, the Brexiters, Republicans, or people saying they are 'conservative' or 'liberal' state that there is a problem and they are the only ones who can solve it do one thing. Calmly ask yourself: is that a real problem? When Orban says that he is the only one looking at the nation's interest is that true? No. I'm against Orban and I look at it. So his claim is false. Our values and goals are the same. Where is the difference? In the facts: namely, the facts Orban wants to build his case on are non-existent. Plainly said, they are lies. This is how easy it is.

Another example: there is no threat of gay people in the world or threat of 'genders' or 'feminism'. Does any sane people disagree with the following 3 claims?
1 Gay people should be left alone to live their lives as everyone else.
2 People with all kinds of genders should be left alone to live their lives as everyone else.
3 In areas where women are disadvantages simply because they are women - in some jobs in their pay, in some legal procedures, in some stereotypes and educational institutions - they should be treated as equals.

No one disagrees with these things. This is what sane gay activists, gender activists, and feminists ask for. Since every normal grown up understands these things and agrees on this, there is no threat.
So, where is the issue? The issue is with the likes of Jordan Peterson lying that there are bigger threats (to freedom of speech, gosh), Trump railing against women because some are protesting against him, and so on. The problem is with the hate mongers who get hung up on non-issues, like how someone experiences their gender.

Call these liars out, and just move on. Don't give them attention, time, energy. Let's keep building a normal world, work, spend quality time with our families. Not everything is politics. Folks like Orban and his Fidesz would like us to believe everything is. Politics is in how we behave in our families, what we think of food, art, literature, fun, gender, etc. That is not true. Politics has nothing to do in most of these places. But sensationalist and populist politicians gain power by pretending that there is. I don't blame people who are tired and confused by the world for getting duped. It happens to all of us. Just make sure you turn away and don't vote for these people. Take a break, enjoy your life, build you community, talk with your neighbour and vote for sensible people, not sensationalists.

Who the heck is Arpad Szakacs?

Arpad Szakacs - this name comes up quite often these days in Hungarian journalism and public life. But one could stop and ask:

Ki a fa*z az a Szakács Árpád? (Who the fu*k is Szakacs Arpad?)

Well, as it turns out, he is one of the folks with zero intellectual credential or any accomplishment to his name favoured by Fidesz. He is a loudmouth who has way too much energy and bashes everything and anything that he deems dangerous to his favourite party (which pays his bills, after all!)

A typical story these days. Read a bit more here on the chap and his not very impressive performance in the Hungarian state sponsored propaganda media.

With pushing people like this, it will only be a matter of years until all our valuable public institutions are fully eroded.

Excusing tyrants

There are always well educated and well-off people who are willing to justify what authoritarian strongman do. Putin has such supporters, Xi has them, Erdogan does, Trump too, and so does Orban in Hungary.
As disgusting as Orban is, there are people who are credible enough - as literary critics, not that that's an amazing proof of sound political judgment - who are sympathetic to him. The one I'm talking about is Tibor Fischer, long-time Fidesz sympathizer.
The Guardian has the fairness to introduce right-wing opinions, and the desire to earn clicks by outraging people, and decided to publish an apology piece for Orban, penned by Fischer.
Fischer is alright on literature. Not very knowledgeable and certainly not a friend of anything in literature that came after the 1920s, but hey, at least he sort of knows there what is he is talking about.
When it comes to politics he is just one of those intellectuals who think that politics is a battle of values and ideals, and that when a politicians work is discussed it is not important to look at
- legal changes
- changes to the welfare system
- corruption connected to that politician
- geopolitical implications.

On the first front Orban's performance is appalling. Fidesz modified the electoral laws in a way that it is very hard to beat it, they modified in several places the laws protecting workers' right to the benefit of company owners, they modified the laws about detention and these play now much more into the hands of the police, and so on.
On the second front Orban's government is doing even worse. Since Fidesz had been elected - 7 years ago - they have scrapped several benefits to people with amputated limbs, people with disabilities, people with chronic illnesses. The minimum amount of pensions is around £80 per month, and the minimum wages (currently at £277/month) are taxed for 16% income tax just as the largest salaries of millions of Forints (thousands of pounds).
On the third front, Fidesz's corruption is unprecedented. Medgyessy, Gyurcsany, and Bajnai were deeply corrupt and their cabinets and parties stole us much as was possible. However Fidesz perfected the art of channeling government money into their own pockets. They set up hundreds of companies, use government schemes (construction orders, local government schemes, land law, etc.) to this purpose. The leaders of the party set up through their friends their own companies which sell Hungarian citizenship and they made around 4 billion Euros so far.
On the fourth front, Fidesz is working hard to undermine the EU and slow down NATO, and is drawing ever closer to Putin's Russia. This is not only disastrous for Hungary and Europe, it is also deeply insulting for all those Hungarians who suffered the Soviet forced 'friendship', which was in fact an occupation.

Fidesz is now shutting down a University because Putin does not like Soros. Soros uses his private funds to support NGOs to foster balanced journalism, transparency, and to educate people up to US and European standards. CEU is just a much better run University with higher standards than most East-European institutions. Putin hates Soros because many opposition leaders made use of the support of organizations founded by Soros's charities. So, Putin instructed Orban to make the operations of CEU impossible. And Orban, like an overly eager puppy, jumped.

This is the Prime Minister and party which Fischer is excusing.

Why people leave Hungary

Janos Lazar, one of the leading FIDESZ politicians, offered an explanation of why so many Hungarians left the country in the last 13 years (about 800,000 out of 10.2 millions). According to Lazar people are deceived: they earn more on paper, but actually their quality of life is lower than it would be in Hungary. They can't afford anything and live as wage slaves.

Well, let's have a look at the numbers. I think it would be reasonable to say that Hungarians would be wiser to stay home given three things: the value of their earning would be high in international comparison, they could make savings that would amount to something at national level, and the ratio of their income to the price of consumer goods would be at least as good as in other countries. To find out how Hungary performs in these three respects we will have a look at the average earnings and consumer price indices, looking at data both from the EU, the Hungarian state, and individual business analysts.

Most Hungarians leave for other EU countries like Germany, Austria, Sweden, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK. These are some of the most robust economies of the EU (and the world) and they have managed to regain growth and expand since the crisis. Most of the Hungarians who've left the country are young, speak at least one foreign language well, and a large proportion has University education (a big number are trained nurses, doctors, and engineers with significant work experience too).

What do the numbers tell us then about staying in Hungary?

First earnings: one of the lowest in the EU. The average someone makes in a month after taxes is around 600-650 Euros (£550 or $700). Not a lot. In international comparison it is very little. This means that Hungarian will have difficulties in travelling, doing business internationally, investing, and of course accumulating significant savings.

Here is the official data from the Hungarian Central Statistics Department. Take into account that they actually show higher levels than real earning averages because they don't include people who are on the public-work programme (kozmunka program). They earn only 76% of the minimum wage. Also, pay attention to the huge gap between Budapest and the other regions. Add to this that the top 10% of earners earns about 10x as much as the bottom 30% and you get a very scary picture of what it is like to be poor, working class, or lower working class in Hungary.

What do the consumer price indexes tell? We see that the salaries are about one-third of the EU average, or a little below, and are about 20-25% of that of the more developed EU countries.
Accordingly, prices should also be one fourth, one fifth, to get the same quality of life.
Sadly, that is not the case. The prices in some respects (accommodation) are around half of what they are in West Europe, but everything else is around 60-80% of the prices one pays for goods in Germany, Austria, or the UK. Which means that the average Hungarian can buy one fourth or one fifth of what the average German, Austrian, or Brit can. If the average Hungarian wants to spend more, or has to spend more, than they can't make any savings or get into debt.
This is not very interesting when it comes to clothing or computer games, but when we think of what one's insurance or what treatments one can pay for one's children it becomes very dire and gloomy.

What's the conclusion? Nobody should stay home to make FIDESZ richer. As much as I love and respect Hungary - the universities, the land, the Balaton, the food, my parents, my family, my friends, the amazing literature and art scene, the remarkable health system, the solid school system - at the moment decent lives can be better built abroad. Until the government channels most of the EU development funds into its own pockets, condones corruption, flirts with Russia and curtails rights, demolishes the free media, closes down universities, and goes against civil right groups and punishes refugees instead of helping them, it is not a good place to live.

On the rottenness of the political leaderships

For a long time I thought that most populist politicians just track the interests and preferences of voters and serve them.

In the last years however it seems more and more that some parties and politicians are perfectly capable of forming the wills of the voters in a way that suits their agenda.

Every time one hears a politician talk these days one is faced with a product. There isn't much content usually that has anything to do with the motivations and values of the person talking, or the institution/post she/he represents. It is just a marketing product designed to attract 'buyers'. who are in this case voters.

What we see at the moment in the EU and in Europe at large (including post-Brexit UK, and European Russia) is that right-wing, extreme-nationalist people are parading as political conservatives. But don't be deluded. They don't actually aim at defending any values or ways of life. They aim at grasping power and securing positions for themselves and their collaborators. This in itself wouldn't be a problem. You will have these moves in any competition. The problem starts when this becomes the sole goal of their activities.

Brexit is an excellent case to study. It does not serve the EUs interests, it does not serve the interests of the British people at large, or the English people at large. It does not serve the interests of Britain, or Britain's foreign political partners. What it does is simply this: There was a worry for some more nationalist and mainly middle level administrators and political and business players in the UK that they would lose their positions and weight in a more unified Europe, and in a UK which is becoming richer and richer. These folks came up with the idea that leaving the EU will protect their positions within British politics and business by isolating - at least partially - the decision making structures and markets in which they participate. It might also help them get higher positions and get a slice of the enormous wealth that the UK - much with the help of the EU, EU citizens working there, and other international partners - has amassed in the last decade.

Three important things about the Hungarian referendum about refugees

There are three things everyone has to understand about last weekend's Hungarian referendum about the refugees:

1. The referendum is not valid. The number of people who went to vote was too small.

2. Many of the people who did not go to vote did not go because they hate Orban and his regime, government and they did not want to lend their support in any form to their propaganda vote.


3. Still, there are too many Hungarians who bought into the governments propaganda. Roughly 80% of the media is controlled by the government or close allies of the government in Hungary. The message they sent blurred the distinctions between refugees and migrants, and between innocent average people and potential terrorists. It demonized hundreds of thousands of innocents fleeing wars and terrible conditions.

One of the posters of the Ketfarku Kutya Part (The Two-tailed Dog Party), reading: 'Did you know? There is a war in Syria.' These signs were set up to mock the government's state-money sponsored hate campaign against refugees and immigrants. See more posters here.

Hungary's true face as the refugee influx has revealed it

Recently Janos Lazar has accused the European Commission of having launched an investigation into breaches of EU regulations by Hungary to take revenge for Hungary's staunch and firm response to the 'migrant-crisis' and 'illegal immigration'. The Hungarian government uses these last two terms to label the group of issues surrounding the arrival of masses of people into Europe. Janos Lazar is Minister of the Prime Minister's Office, so what he says is what Orban thinks. What Orban thinks is what his ministers think.

Of course Orban and Lazar are wrong as usual. Lazar has been the strongman posing as a 'defender of Hungarians' when he accused Hungarian NGOs of accepting money from Norway Grants to run campaigns against the government. These ridiculous claims have been proven wrong since then and no matter how hard the tax office (NAV) tried they couldn't find faults with the accounting at the NGOs investigated.

The same is the case this time. Lazar - as often - is talking blatant nonsense. The EC has problems - and rightly so - with procedural issues. That is, Hungary didn't follow certain EU rules which are binding to all members in the way they dealt with migrants. This is a purely legal issue. Similar procedures have been started against other countries which failed to comply with particular regulations and laws.

Orban's and Lazar's statements are not the first ones. They are part of a large campaign they have been conducting systematically. The strategy is simple: raise panic at home, accuse others of not doing anything, bring in drastic measures (which aren't necessary in reality), and then pose as the defender of the people. Lots of votes at home: granted.

The main problem of course is not that Hungarian government hasn't provided enough translators for the refugees or such small issues. It is that the government has failed morally. It has refused and refuses to support and help anyone. What strikes me still is that the government is very popular at the moment in Hungary. I think that the moral failure is mostly the governments, but at least a number of voters who should know better and could think for themselves share in the blame.

How the Hungarian government promotes itself and how it hides behind voters

The current Hungarian government is, frankly put, not worth a sack of poop. The government spends about 65 billion Hungarian Forints (roughly £155 million) on the state TV channels (M1, M2, Duna, M4). The interesting bit is that M1 has been transformed recently into a news channel. Well, guess who the news cover now 24/7? Yepp, it's the government all the way down baby, nothing else.

The other fun thing currently in vogue in Hungarian politics is to say: 'Well, the voters gave us 2/3rds majority, so whatever I do, it is what the people want me to do!' A bit of corruption: 'The people want me to do this.' A bit of lying: 'That's what the voters gave me license to do.' Being cruel towards refugees: 'Hey, it's the voters, not me!'
This is the main line taken by the PM and other prominent members of the government, and this is how they defend themselves from any criticism. When they are fairly confident that they can manipulate people the way they want they hold what they call a 'national consultation'. This consists of every registered voter receiving a leaflet with a number of question organized thematically. We can send this back to a government office. The whole process is secretive, there is no transparency, no one overseeing how the incoming replies are evaluated. The questions are of course put so that they prime people towards the answers which suit the governments main line. This is also done out of tax money of course.
In the last such 'consultation' people had the chance to answer questions about immigrants. (The leaflet did not really ask anyone about refugees or asylum seekers.) The questions all stank, but of course there are enough devotees and silly folks to send in a lot of opinions in line with the governments opinion. About 1,1 million people - allegedly - sent in such replies. This is less than 20% of the voting population. But ever since then whatever disgusting thing the government does at the borders, they justify it by this vote.

In the light of the above described I have two practical suggestions. I would be happy if either of them would get accepted.
1) Let's ask people whether they are happy that the government spends their tax money on promoting themselves. Of course at least 20% of the voters aren't happy with this. Accordingly, they should offer the option to pay back my shares from taxes (a few thousand Forints per year) which goes towards supporting the state TV (and radio) channels. Or
2) Let the voters decide what the government should use their money for. I would be super happy if my money would go either towards the proper nutritious and healthy feeding of poor children, or towards financing research at higher ed institutions, or towards creating a welcoming and effective settlement programme for refugees. I also wouldn't mind if my money would be divided between these three goals. But I do mind it being taken away for propaganda purposes and for presenting facts in a tendentious way.

Nemzeti népmese

Amit a FIDESZ árul az egy törénet: a szavazókat arra biztatják, hogy ne az adatokat nézzék, ne a szakértőkre hallgassanak, ne elemzéseket olvassanak, hanem Orbán Viktor ölére kucorodva figyeljenek a mesére amit a fülükbe duruzsolnak. A mese egy klassz helyről szól, ahol jó élni, keményen kell dolgozni és focizni, de ha ezt megteszi az ember kerül kolbász az asztalra és még talán pálinkát is főzhetünk.

Döbbenetes, hogy az utóbbi években ezt annyit sulykolták itthon, hogy egyesek elhiszik hogy Magyarország jobb hely, mint mondjuk Németország, az USA, az Egyesült Királyság, Spanyolország, Japán, vagy akár csak Taiwan, esetleg Chile. Nem jobb. Szegényebb, rosszabbak az úthálózatok és a kórházak, alacsonyabbak a fizetések, a kormány semmit nem tesz hogy a legnagyobb és legleszakadtabb kisebbségünk helyzetén változtasson (se képzés, se munka), és korábban ezerszer megbukott, ezerszer kártékonynak bizonyult túlzó nacionalizmussal tüzeli a választóit. A kormány kereszténységről papol, de az intézkedései és a kormányzási módszerei távolról sem keresztényiek. Mellesleg eleve nevetséges egységes keresztény Európáról szónokolni, amikor rengeteg ateista, zsidó, és általában a vallás iránt közömbös ember él ennek a politikai-gazdasági egységnek a területén.

De a nemzeti-gyagya kelendő termék, sokan veszik. Többen talán nem szeretnék elfogadni, hogy kellene rengeteg régi szokáson és magatartáson változtatni, hogy igenis kell konfrontálódni a korrupt főnökökkel, az adócsaló ismerősökkel, a hűtlen és/vagy szexista barátokkal, vagy akár a politikai nézeteikre igénytelen kollégákkal is. Szeretnék azt hinni, hogy tulajdonképpen elég fasza minden úgy ahogy van, csak egy kicsit több pénz kell, azt meg oké ha összelopják, hiszen ezen az amúgy szuper helyen sokan mások is ezt teszik.

Magyarországban, a magyar lakosságban egyébként sokkal több potenciál van ennél. Ezt mutatja, hogy az ország méretéhez és a kutatási-fejlesztési ill felsőokatási ráfordításokhoz képest még most is normális számban jegyeznek be felfedezéseket és új termékeket, hogy van még felsőoktatás és élénk irodalmi élet, színházi élet, hogy vannak szép turisztikai látványosságok és van egy-egy jó film. Vannak normálisan működő és működtetett intézmények is, és rendben tartott közutak, világítás és egészségügyi kezelések.

Ki lehet hozni sokkal többet ebből a helyből, egyszerűen nem kell hallgatni azokra, akik semmin nem akarnak változatni, akik a múltba szeretnének visszautazni, és természetesen úgy képzelik el, hogy ők a nagyon vékonyka akkori felsőréteg tagjai lennének.
Mindenkinek kellene kicsit utaznia, olvasnia, mert itthonról tényleg nehéz látni, hogy mit lehetne máshogy csinálni. Megszokja az ember a szexizmust, a korrupciót, a mutyit, a munkába beépülő lazsálást és csevegést, a célszerűtlen és autoriter vezetői szerkezeteket. Feladat van bőven, fel lehetne használni az értelmes és tehetséges fiatalokat. Itt sincs több vagy kevesebb belőlük mint máshol, de lehetőséghez kevesebbhez jutnak és korán leszűkítik a politikai fantáziájukat.

The Istvan Lovas scandal - should they eat shit?

Good ol' Hungary is at it again. Or at least Istvan Lovas is, one of the Brussels correspondents of the daily paper Magyar Nemzet (translating into Hungarian Nation), which is heavily leaning towards the current Fidesz-KDNP Government.

The story in a nutshell: Lovas wrote an e-mail to the journalists responsible for covering Hungarian events on international level, complaining that whereas they vividly depict the 'supposed' wrongdoings of the governing party, they don't inform the rest of the EU about any of the scandals the former governing party MSZP gets involved in. He ends his short rant by recommending the aforementioned media workers to eat shit.

You can see a Hungarian article on the scandal here:

http://atlatszo.blog.hu/2013/10/29/egyetek_szart_seggfejek_lovas_istvan_a_kulfoldi_tudositoknak

The page also contains Lovas's e-mail in English.

Truth be told: Lovas is right that the MSZP's affairs don't get much publicity nowadays aboard. But I think he is wrong about the reasons for this. Lovas implies that the Hungarian correspondents prefer MSZP and other parties in contrast to Fidesz-KDNP. That's bollocks. When MSZP was the ruling party international media was quick to deliver news about their wrongdoings. This happened both when the police reacted in a brutal way to some of the anti-government protests that sprung up after the 1956 ceremonies. Same thing applies to the case of ex-president Gyurcsany when someone got a recording of him beginning a speech addressed to his fellow MSZP members at a party meeting beginning thus: "We fucked up. We were lying in the morning, at noon, and in the evening."

There are two reasons why no one writes about MSZP but there is some coverage of the work of Fidesz-KDNP. First, Hungary is a small, quite insignificant country. Not too many care about news about the shady activities and mistakes of one of the opposition parties. Second, whereas MSZP's activity mainly harms Hungarians, the current Fidesz-KDNP government openly engages in anti-EU populist propaganda, took on board a very risky economic strategy to ease the debt situation of the country (we still don't see whether it will work or not), and they introduced modifications in the constitution and media law which can be used to the advantages of the governing party. These four things both go against much of mainstream EU thinking and values, and also openly engage with many of the EU's leading thinkers and politicians in a hostile way. Thus, they are more interesting as news material, more controversial and get more attention.

Lovas's character has often come under attack during the last few years. I think he is one of those people who openly engage in party rhetoric and do not even take the trouble of trying to appear balanced or impartial. In fact, this attitude gains him much popularity among far-right readers and the xenophobes. I think what makes his case really bad is that he knows the rules of the game very well, but pretends not to, pretends to be honest.

People like him are no use for Hungary, and not even for his party. He is a great example of those who - instead of trying to work at developing the country, gaining new opportunities, opening up and winning over territories in economic fields - are just satisfied with barking as loud as they can around the quarters of their masters, securing whatever personal gain they can, not caring for the consequences.