Why people leave Hungary

Janos Lazar, one of the leading FIDESZ politicians, offered an explanation of why so many Hungarians left the country in the last 13 years (about 800,000 out of 10.2 millions). According to Lazar people are deceived: they earn more on paper, but actually their quality of life is lower than it would be in Hungary. They can't afford anything and live as wage slaves.

Well, let's have a look at the numbers. I think it would be reasonable to say that Hungarians would be wiser to stay home given three things: the value of their earning would be high in international comparison, they could make savings that would amount to something at national level, and the ratio of their income to the price of consumer goods would be at least as good as in other countries. To find out how Hungary performs in these three respects we will have a look at the average earnings and consumer price indices, looking at data both from the EU, the Hungarian state, and individual business analysts.

Most Hungarians leave for other EU countries like Germany, Austria, Sweden, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK. These are some of the most robust economies of the EU (and the world) and they have managed to regain growth and expand since the crisis. Most of the Hungarians who've left the country are young, speak at least one foreign language well, and a large proportion has University education (a big number are trained nurses, doctors, and engineers with significant work experience too).

What do the numbers tell us then about staying in Hungary?

First earnings: one of the lowest in the EU. The average someone makes in a month after taxes is around 600-650 Euros (£550 or $700). Not a lot. In international comparison it is very little. This means that Hungarian will have difficulties in travelling, doing business internationally, investing, and of course accumulating significant savings.

Here is the official data from the Hungarian Central Statistics Department. Take into account that they actually show higher levels than real earning averages because they don't include people who are on the public-work programme (kozmunka program). They earn only 76% of the minimum wage. Also, pay attention to the huge gap between Budapest and the other regions. Add to this that the top 10% of earners earns about 10x as much as the bottom 30% and you get a very scary picture of what it is like to be poor, working class, or lower working class in Hungary.

What do the consumer price indexes tell? We see that the salaries are about one-third of the EU average, or a little below, and are about 20-25% of that of the more developed EU countries.
Accordingly, prices should also be one fourth, one fifth, to get the same quality of life.
Sadly, that is not the case. The prices in some respects (accommodation) are around half of what they are in West Europe, but everything else is around 60-80% of the prices one pays for goods in Germany, Austria, or the UK. Which means that the average Hungarian can buy one fourth or one fifth of what the average German, Austrian, or Brit can. If the average Hungarian wants to spend more, or has to spend more, than they can't make any savings or get into debt.
This is not very interesting when it comes to clothing or computer games, but when we think of what one's insurance or what treatments one can pay for one's children it becomes very dire and gloomy.

What's the conclusion? Nobody should stay home to make FIDESZ richer. As much as I love and respect Hungary - the universities, the land, the Balaton, the food, my parents, my family, my friends, the amazing literature and art scene, the remarkable health system, the solid school system - at the moment decent lives can be better built abroad. Until the government channels most of the EU development funds into its own pockets, condones corruption, flirts with Russia and curtails rights, demolishes the free media, closes down universities, and goes against civil right groups and punishes refugees instead of helping them, it is not a good place to live.

Hungary's true face as the refugee influx has revealed it

Recently Janos Lazar has accused the European Commission of having launched an investigation into breaches of EU regulations by Hungary to take revenge for Hungary's staunch and firm response to the 'migrant-crisis' and 'illegal immigration'. The Hungarian government uses these last two terms to label the group of issues surrounding the arrival of masses of people into Europe. Janos Lazar is Minister of the Prime Minister's Office, so what he says is what Orban thinks. What Orban thinks is what his ministers think.

Of course Orban and Lazar are wrong as usual. Lazar has been the strongman posing as a 'defender of Hungarians' when he accused Hungarian NGOs of accepting money from Norway Grants to run campaigns against the government. These ridiculous claims have been proven wrong since then and no matter how hard the tax office (NAV) tried they couldn't find faults with the accounting at the NGOs investigated.

The same is the case this time. Lazar - as often - is talking blatant nonsense. The EC has problems - and rightly so - with procedural issues. That is, Hungary didn't follow certain EU rules which are binding to all members in the way they dealt with migrants. This is a purely legal issue. Similar procedures have been started against other countries which failed to comply with particular regulations and laws.

Orban's and Lazar's statements are not the first ones. They are part of a large campaign they have been conducting systematically. The strategy is simple: raise panic at home, accuse others of not doing anything, bring in drastic measures (which aren't necessary in reality), and then pose as the defender of the people. Lots of votes at home: granted.

The main problem of course is not that Hungarian government hasn't provided enough translators for the refugees or such small issues. It is that the government has failed morally. It has refused and refuses to support and help anyone. What strikes me still is that the government is very popular at the moment in Hungary. I think that the moral failure is mostly the governments, but at least a number of voters who should know better and could think for themselves share in the blame.