It is a very interesting myth that was around for a long-long time in Central- and Eastern-Europe that it is somehow the duty of artists, university teachers, and others in white-collar jobs to take responsibility for voicing their criticism against unjust, unfair and bad government action.
In itself there isn't anything wrong with such a view, but it does look a bit dated and exclusive. The other problem with it is that a lot of people just pushed aside the burden of getting information about political and public issues, waving their hands towards the intellectuals who are supposed to be responsible for shaping the public debate.
At the moment sadly no one else but the government has the resources to really determine what the public thinks and talks about - except of course if one thinks for oneself, or is willing to read blogs, internet magazines, and foreign newspapers, news sources.
Nevertheless there are a few promising young analysts who often advance smart and insightful criticism against the government. Zoltan Cegledi is such a person, and his latest post on his site is also a nice proof of this. (Although I disagree with the complaints about food in schools. Food is healthier now, and the kids eating way too much sugar, fat and salt so far will have to get used to it in their own interest.)
Friday 20 November 2015
Thursday 19 November 2015
How the Hungarian government promotes itself and how it hides behind voters
The current Hungarian government is, frankly put, not worth a sack of poop. The government spends about 65 billion Hungarian Forints (roughly £155 million) on the state TV channels (M1, M2, Duna, M4). The interesting bit is that M1 has been transformed recently into a news channel. Well, guess who the news cover now 24/7? Yepp, it's the government all the way down baby, nothing else.
The other fun thing currently in vogue in Hungarian politics is to say: 'Well, the voters gave us 2/3rds majority, so whatever I do, it is what the people want me to do!' A bit of corruption: 'The people want me to do this.' A bit of lying: 'That's what the voters gave me license to do.' Being cruel towards refugees: 'Hey, it's the voters, not me!'
This is the main line taken by the PM and other prominent members of the government, and this is how they defend themselves from any criticism. When they are fairly confident that they can manipulate people the way they want they hold what they call a 'national consultation'. This consists of every registered voter receiving a leaflet with a number of question organized thematically. We can send this back to a government office. The whole process is secretive, there is no transparency, no one overseeing how the incoming replies are evaluated. The questions are of course put so that they prime people towards the answers which suit the governments main line. This is also done out of tax money of course.
In the last such 'consultation' people had the chance to answer questions about immigrants. (The leaflet did not really ask anyone about refugees or asylum seekers.) The questions all stank, but of course there are enough devotees and silly folks to send in a lot of opinions in line with the governments opinion. About 1,1 million people - allegedly - sent in such replies. This is less than 20% of the voting population. But ever since then whatever disgusting thing the government does at the borders, they justify it by this vote.
In the light of the above described I have two practical suggestions. I would be happy if either of them would get accepted.
1) Let's ask people whether they are happy that the government spends their tax money on promoting themselves. Of course at least 20% of the voters aren't happy with this. Accordingly, they should offer the option to pay back my shares from taxes (a few thousand Forints per year) which goes towards supporting the state TV (and radio) channels. Or
2) Let the voters decide what the government should use their money for. I would be super happy if my money would go either towards the proper nutritious and healthy feeding of poor children, or towards financing research at higher ed institutions, or towards creating a welcoming and effective settlement programme for refugees. I also wouldn't mind if my money would be divided between these three goals. But I do mind it being taken away for propaganda purposes and for presenting facts in a tendentious way.
The other fun thing currently in vogue in Hungarian politics is to say: 'Well, the voters gave us 2/3rds majority, so whatever I do, it is what the people want me to do!' A bit of corruption: 'The people want me to do this.' A bit of lying: 'That's what the voters gave me license to do.' Being cruel towards refugees: 'Hey, it's the voters, not me!'
This is the main line taken by the PM and other prominent members of the government, and this is how they defend themselves from any criticism. When they are fairly confident that they can manipulate people the way they want they hold what they call a 'national consultation'. This consists of every registered voter receiving a leaflet with a number of question organized thematically. We can send this back to a government office. The whole process is secretive, there is no transparency, no one overseeing how the incoming replies are evaluated. The questions are of course put so that they prime people towards the answers which suit the governments main line. This is also done out of tax money of course.
In the last such 'consultation' people had the chance to answer questions about immigrants. (The leaflet did not really ask anyone about refugees or asylum seekers.) The questions all stank, but of course there are enough devotees and silly folks to send in a lot of opinions in line with the governments opinion. About 1,1 million people - allegedly - sent in such replies. This is less than 20% of the voting population. But ever since then whatever disgusting thing the government does at the borders, they justify it by this vote.
In the light of the above described I have two practical suggestions. I would be happy if either of them would get accepted.
1) Let's ask people whether they are happy that the government spends their tax money on promoting themselves. Of course at least 20% of the voters aren't happy with this. Accordingly, they should offer the option to pay back my shares from taxes (a few thousand Forints per year) which goes towards supporting the state TV (and radio) channels. Or
2) Let the voters decide what the government should use their money for. I would be super happy if my money would go either towards the proper nutritious and healthy feeding of poor children, or towards financing research at higher ed institutions, or towards creating a welcoming and effective settlement programme for refugees. I also wouldn't mind if my money would be divided between these three goals. But I do mind it being taken away for propaganda purposes and for presenting facts in a tendentious way.
Wednesday 18 November 2015
Nemzeti népmese
Amit a FIDESZ árul az egy törénet: a szavazókat arra biztatják, hogy ne az adatokat nézzék, ne a szakértőkre hallgassanak, ne elemzéseket olvassanak, hanem Orbán Viktor ölére kucorodva figyeljenek a mesére amit a fülükbe duruzsolnak. A mese egy klassz helyről szól, ahol jó élni, keményen kell dolgozni és focizni, de ha ezt megteszi az ember kerül kolbász az asztalra és még talán pálinkát is főzhetünk.
Döbbenetes, hogy az utóbbi években ezt annyit sulykolták itthon, hogy egyesek elhiszik hogy Magyarország jobb hely, mint mondjuk Németország, az USA, az Egyesült Királyság, Spanyolország, Japán, vagy akár csak Taiwan, esetleg Chile. Nem jobb. Szegényebb, rosszabbak az úthálózatok és a kórházak, alacsonyabbak a fizetések, a kormány semmit nem tesz hogy a legnagyobb és legleszakadtabb kisebbségünk helyzetén változtasson (se képzés, se munka), és korábban ezerszer megbukott, ezerszer kártékonynak bizonyult túlzó nacionalizmussal tüzeli a választóit. A kormány kereszténységről papol, de az intézkedései és a kormányzási módszerei távolról sem keresztényiek. Mellesleg eleve nevetséges egységes keresztény Európáról szónokolni, amikor rengeteg ateista, zsidó, és általában a vallás iránt közömbös ember él ennek a politikai-gazdasági egységnek a területén.
De a nemzeti-gyagya kelendő termék, sokan veszik. Többen talán nem szeretnék elfogadni, hogy kellene rengeteg régi szokáson és magatartáson változtatni, hogy igenis kell konfrontálódni a korrupt főnökökkel, az adócsaló ismerősökkel, a hűtlen és/vagy szexista barátokkal, vagy akár a politikai nézeteikre igénytelen kollégákkal is. Szeretnék azt hinni, hogy tulajdonképpen elég fasza minden úgy ahogy van, csak egy kicsit több pénz kell, azt meg oké ha összelopják, hiszen ezen az amúgy szuper helyen sokan mások is ezt teszik.
Magyarországban, a magyar lakosságban egyébként sokkal több potenciál van ennél. Ezt mutatja, hogy az ország méretéhez és a kutatási-fejlesztési ill felsőokatási ráfordításokhoz képest még most is normális számban jegyeznek be felfedezéseket és új termékeket, hogy van még felsőoktatás és élénk irodalmi élet, színházi élet, hogy vannak szép turisztikai látványosságok és van egy-egy jó film. Vannak normálisan működő és működtetett intézmények is, és rendben tartott közutak, világítás és egészségügyi kezelések.
Ki lehet hozni sokkal többet ebből a helyből, egyszerűen nem kell hallgatni azokra, akik semmin nem akarnak változatni, akik a múltba szeretnének visszautazni, és természetesen úgy képzelik el, hogy ők a nagyon vékonyka akkori felsőréteg tagjai lennének.
Mindenkinek kellene kicsit utaznia, olvasnia, mert itthonról tényleg nehéz látni, hogy mit lehetne máshogy csinálni. Megszokja az ember a szexizmust, a korrupciót, a mutyit, a munkába beépülő lazsálást és csevegést, a célszerűtlen és autoriter vezetői szerkezeteket. Feladat van bőven, fel lehetne használni az értelmes és tehetséges fiatalokat. Itt sincs több vagy kevesebb belőlük mint máshol, de lehetőséghez kevesebbhez jutnak és korán leszűkítik a politikai fantáziájukat.
Döbbenetes, hogy az utóbbi években ezt annyit sulykolták itthon, hogy egyesek elhiszik hogy Magyarország jobb hely, mint mondjuk Németország, az USA, az Egyesült Királyság, Spanyolország, Japán, vagy akár csak Taiwan, esetleg Chile. Nem jobb. Szegényebb, rosszabbak az úthálózatok és a kórházak, alacsonyabbak a fizetések, a kormány semmit nem tesz hogy a legnagyobb és legleszakadtabb kisebbségünk helyzetén változtasson (se képzés, se munka), és korábban ezerszer megbukott, ezerszer kártékonynak bizonyult túlzó nacionalizmussal tüzeli a választóit. A kormány kereszténységről papol, de az intézkedései és a kormányzási módszerei távolról sem keresztényiek. Mellesleg eleve nevetséges egységes keresztény Európáról szónokolni, amikor rengeteg ateista, zsidó, és általában a vallás iránt közömbös ember él ennek a politikai-gazdasági egységnek a területén.
De a nemzeti-gyagya kelendő termék, sokan veszik. Többen talán nem szeretnék elfogadni, hogy kellene rengeteg régi szokáson és magatartáson változtatni, hogy igenis kell konfrontálódni a korrupt főnökökkel, az adócsaló ismerősökkel, a hűtlen és/vagy szexista barátokkal, vagy akár a politikai nézeteikre igénytelen kollégákkal is. Szeretnék azt hinni, hogy tulajdonképpen elég fasza minden úgy ahogy van, csak egy kicsit több pénz kell, azt meg oké ha összelopják, hiszen ezen az amúgy szuper helyen sokan mások is ezt teszik.
Magyarországban, a magyar lakosságban egyébként sokkal több potenciál van ennél. Ezt mutatja, hogy az ország méretéhez és a kutatási-fejlesztési ill felsőokatási ráfordításokhoz képest még most is normális számban jegyeznek be felfedezéseket és új termékeket, hogy van még felsőoktatás és élénk irodalmi élet, színházi élet, hogy vannak szép turisztikai látványosságok és van egy-egy jó film. Vannak normálisan működő és működtetett intézmények is, és rendben tartott közutak, világítás és egészségügyi kezelések.
Ki lehet hozni sokkal többet ebből a helyből, egyszerűen nem kell hallgatni azokra, akik semmin nem akarnak változatni, akik a múltba szeretnének visszautazni, és természetesen úgy képzelik el, hogy ők a nagyon vékonyka akkori felsőréteg tagjai lennének.
Mindenkinek kellene kicsit utaznia, olvasnia, mert itthonról tényleg nehéz látni, hogy mit lehetne máshogy csinálni. Megszokja az ember a szexizmust, a korrupciót, a mutyit, a munkába beépülő lazsálást és csevegést, a célszerűtlen és autoriter vezetői szerkezeteket. Feladat van bőven, fel lehetne használni az értelmes és tehetséges fiatalokat. Itt sincs több vagy kevesebb belőlük mint máshol, de lehetőséghez kevesebbhez jutnak és korán leszűkítik a politikai fantáziájukat.
Population growth in Europe, refugees and immigration
This post is just a short notice to all those who lean right and believe politicians who are panicking about the increase of the percentage of Muslims in Europe and the transformation of Europe and European culture.
The only threatening transformation is that Europe will become even more closed, hard to access and hard to settle in.
Have you ever thought about how hard it is obtain a job or residency permit in Europe for people outside the EU? This applies to Japanese, Russians, US citizens, all the South Americans, Canadians and so on. The countries where people are being let into the EU are mostly either countries that have been colonized, plundered and repressed for hundreds of years by the British Empire, France, Belgium, and other EU members or countries where poverty or wars create such miserable circumstances to live that any well-off country has a moral duty to help at least a number of people.
The current swollen migration changed this pattern a bit: people are arriving from war thorn regions in masses - from Irak, from Syria, from Afghanistan, from the borderlands of Pakistan, from Somalia. But so are people from poor countries and regions who just want a chance for an easier life.
I think a region as well off as the EU does not have any right to refuse a sustainable number of immigrants either way, but it surely is true that nor the EU nor any of the member states - not even the ever-so-proud-of-its-fence Hungarian government - has any good ideas on how to deal with security screenings and background checks in a practical and fast way. And that's a must.
Nevertheless, the most important thing of course is to support as many people as we can to provide the chance for a normal life for them. The rest - how we solve the security checks, how we solve their integration, how we solve their education, etc. - are all just secondary administrative questions. They are difficult questions but this is not an argument against letting people in need into Europe. They are questions which need to be solved by smart professionals. I won't even address ridiculous and cruel opinions like PM Orban's according to which we can just refuse anyone to enter Hungary. I wish we could refuse to listen to PM Orban anymore, but as long as his party is in charge of governing the state media channels will echo even his farts and hail them as words of a true genius.
After this cursory treatment of the principles which underpin my stance let's look at a few numbers. Many European citizens are worried about the percentage of Arabs amongst the population and there are plenty of very well paid 'experts' who are nothing but professional scare mongers. The facts are the following:
Germany has a population of roughly 81 million people at the moment. Out of this, about 2,7 million are Turkish, who are not Arabs and even if some of them are believers they are by no means radical. About 600 000 are Arab. Now this means that if Germany would accept 800 000 refugees and migrants this year and the next its population would swell to about 83,5 Millions and there would be 800 000 + 800 000 + 600 000 Arabs totaling at 2 200 000 (which is still more than the real numbers, since many of the current Immigrants are Asians and Africans and not Arabs, but let's over estimate things a bit). This would still be only about 2,5 percent of the population. Europe's total population is about 500 million. 2 200 200 would be less than 0,5 percent of that, and that is not only the number of Arab people coming to Europe but the number of all the people coming to Europe, assuming they all stay in Germany.
According to estimates of the French state they have a Muslim population of about 8-10% of the total population in a country of about 61 million people, that is about 5-6 million Muslims. Even if Germany were to accept all 800 000 people this year and the next - which they will not: they have already started sending people back - we would be talking at most about 8 200 000 Arabs (not all of them believers, and only a handful of them radical believers) in Europe, which is still less than 1,5% of the total population of the EU. Fair enough, there are large Arab populations in Europe in other countries, for example in the Netherlands, the UK, or in Sweden. But even if you would take all these numbers into account the total of Arab people (not all of whom are Muslims) would be well below 3% percent of the total of the population of the EU. Add to this that not all Muslims are serious believers, and that not all serious believers are radicals. Also add to this that not all radical believers would be willing to commit crimes or violence - that is only a tiny fraction of people.
So, taken everything together, the danger that Europe will be transformed by immigration or that Europe would be changed into a Muslim or Islamic political organization are nonexistent.
The only threatening transformation is that Europe will become even more closed, hard to access and hard to settle in.
Have you ever thought about how hard it is obtain a job or residency permit in Europe for people outside the EU? This applies to Japanese, Russians, US citizens, all the South Americans, Canadians and so on. The countries where people are being let into the EU are mostly either countries that have been colonized, plundered and repressed for hundreds of years by the British Empire, France, Belgium, and other EU members or countries where poverty or wars create such miserable circumstances to live that any well-off country has a moral duty to help at least a number of people.
The current swollen migration changed this pattern a bit: people are arriving from war thorn regions in masses - from Irak, from Syria, from Afghanistan, from the borderlands of Pakistan, from Somalia. But so are people from poor countries and regions who just want a chance for an easier life.
I think a region as well off as the EU does not have any right to refuse a sustainable number of immigrants either way, but it surely is true that nor the EU nor any of the member states - not even the ever-so-proud-of-its-fence Hungarian government - has any good ideas on how to deal with security screenings and background checks in a practical and fast way. And that's a must.
Nevertheless, the most important thing of course is to support as many people as we can to provide the chance for a normal life for them. The rest - how we solve the security checks, how we solve their integration, how we solve their education, etc. - are all just secondary administrative questions. They are difficult questions but this is not an argument against letting people in need into Europe. They are questions which need to be solved by smart professionals. I won't even address ridiculous and cruel opinions like PM Orban's according to which we can just refuse anyone to enter Hungary. I wish we could refuse to listen to PM Orban anymore, but as long as his party is in charge of governing the state media channels will echo even his farts and hail them as words of a true genius.
After this cursory treatment of the principles which underpin my stance let's look at a few numbers. Many European citizens are worried about the percentage of Arabs amongst the population and there are plenty of very well paid 'experts' who are nothing but professional scare mongers. The facts are the following:
Germany has a population of roughly 81 million people at the moment. Out of this, about 2,7 million are Turkish, who are not Arabs and even if some of them are believers they are by no means radical. About 600 000 are Arab. Now this means that if Germany would accept 800 000 refugees and migrants this year and the next its population would swell to about 83,5 Millions and there would be 800 000 + 800 000 + 600 000 Arabs totaling at 2 200 000 (which is still more than the real numbers, since many of the current Immigrants are Asians and Africans and not Arabs, but let's over estimate things a bit). This would still be only about 2,5 percent of the population. Europe's total population is about 500 million. 2 200 200 would be less than 0,5 percent of that, and that is not only the number of Arab people coming to Europe but the number of all the people coming to Europe, assuming they all stay in Germany.
According to estimates of the French state they have a Muslim population of about 8-10% of the total population in a country of about 61 million people, that is about 5-6 million Muslims. Even if Germany were to accept all 800 000 people this year and the next - which they will not: they have already started sending people back - we would be talking at most about 8 200 000 Arabs (not all of them believers, and only a handful of them radical believers) in Europe, which is still less than 1,5% of the total population of the EU. Fair enough, there are large Arab populations in Europe in other countries, for example in the Netherlands, the UK, or in Sweden. But even if you would take all these numbers into account the total of Arab people (not all of whom are Muslims) would be well below 3% percent of the total of the population of the EU. Add to this that not all Muslims are serious believers, and that not all serious believers are radicals. Also add to this that not all radical believers would be willing to commit crimes or violence - that is only a tiny fraction of people.
So, taken everything together, the danger that Europe will be transformed by immigration or that Europe would be changed into a Muslim or Islamic political organization are nonexistent.
Tuesday 17 November 2015
How to beat the FIDESZ media-machine
A very interesting thing I realized while at home in Hungary is that the currently ruling party, FIDESZ, rules simply by selling people stories. (I treat FIDESZ as the ruling party. Let's be honest, the Christian Democratic People's Party, KDNP, is just in it for the fun and does not contribute much.)
I'm not saying that the government isn't doing anything in the interest of the country. They did enact many policies and laws and they have good professional teams working on particular issues of economics, sociology, etc. There are also plenty of talented, professional people working for the Hungarian government, and in the different ministries and offices. This entry says nothing about their work. This entry is simply about how FIDESZ is securing its popularity.
And as you can guess the fact that the way the ruling party is securing its popularity is 100% disconnected from the way it is running the country - and I do not mean a few sensationalist issues, like how it deals with producing schnaps at home - is scary. I'd bet a good bottle of wine that most people who are currently voters of FIDESZ have no idea and don't care at all about FIDESZ's work on economy, on how and whether it is doing anything for the education or the health sectors, on whether it has an energy strategy, and so on. What people buy are two things: i) the image of a strong leader, and ii) the image generated that the party is perpetually in action, non-stop working for "the Hungarian people".
If we look at both of these images it is easy to see that there isn't much content behind them. Orban is an average politician who gives good speeches but hasn't managed to carry out reform in any of the significantly problematic sectors of Hungarian life - he has no idea or policy to deal with poverty, he has no clue on how to deal with the segregation of the Roma population, no view on the increasing difference between incomes in other EU countries and incomes in Hungary, no initiative on strengthening new areas of the economy, no intent of reforming the old system of healthcare that is still at work in Hungary. And he is quite insignificant at a European level. What is sold at home is an image: an image of a man who cares, who loves his country and people, who is passionate about popular issues like soccer and the strength and security of the nation. Whether Orban is really like this, we don't know of course. As with actors and TV personalities we cannot assume that politicians profess their honest opinions when they appear in public.
The image that the party is in constant action is at least true. But the image sold of the actions of the party is an image of the party as being super-effective in governing the country. Now, this is not really true. Debt is roughly at the same level as it was 5 or 7 years ago. Employment rates are better but only because masses of people have left the country and work abroad, and simultaneously the government is employing throngs of people through local councils. Meanwhile we see Janos Lazar talking 3-4-5 times a day about all they have achieved, all they are doing. And what they are doing and selling doesn't make much sense. Think of our Foreign Minister Szijjarto's rampage of insulting politicians in neighboring countries in September and October.
The opposition parties struggle to do anything against this communication. Since FIDESZ is in charge of all the state owned TV and radio channels and their supporters are running several of the main newspapers it is very easy for them to get their message through to people. I'm not suggesting that they would repress others. (At least I don't know of any particular cases.) And to be honest, the opposition still has plenty of chances to communicate. But it does not have nearly anything as powerful as the government-communication mojo. No well-selling trademark faces, no outstanding speakers (except maybe for one or two in LMP and Jobbik), and no catchy, simple and easy-to-understand message-package.
What could be done in this situation to undermine the self-generated and self-promoted credibility of FIDESZ? Well, simply ignore them. Nobody should take Orban seriously. (We shouldn't do so anyway, so even better if ignoring him is a means to a good end.) We should simply not get into the debates as the government is framing them. There have been good attempts at this. When other parties pose uncomfortable questions the government does not do anything but talks down all accusations aggressively and people who already support them like this. But what if they are ignored?
What if others can offer imaginative, serious, interesting political options? I think that part of why Jobbik is currently the second most popular party in Hungary has less to do with their far-right, nationalistic, xenophobic and militant messages, and more with the fact that they present an easy to remember and clear line that isn't hard to imagine. Most voters won't think very hard about what they hear. They won't check whether the claims of a party add up. If it is easy to believe that they do, many voters will believe that party. Of course if one thinks through what Jobbik says one is horrified and at the same time realizes that it has no basis in reality, and doesn't work. (Just think of their laughable ideas about being a 'self-reliant' economy, or their fiasco in first supporting Syria, then the rebels against Assad, and now standing firmly against supporting Syrian refugees). But their (ridiculous) fantasies are still grasping for many people.
Now, let us believe that there are better grasping and motivating, touching and interesting political pictures which we can offer. And most importantly that there are pictures which are worth offering because they are closer to the truth, to a workable economic policy and international foreign policy. The task should be to craft political scenarios that can be formed into a likeable narrative, a story voters can identify with, that we can offer instead of Jobbik's nightmare and the products of FIDESZ's illusion factory. As such a task cannot be done by the old agents and the old parties - MSZP, DK, Együtt, etc. - clearly only LMP and Jobbik stand a chance from the currently existing parties to shift towards such a story. LMP has the better chances because they haven't already ruined their reputation amongst more careful reasoners in the way Jobbik did. But a new party's rise would also be welcome - provided it has nothing to do with any of the oldies (Gyurcsány and Bajnai also count as oldies with no credibility).
I'm not saying that the government isn't doing anything in the interest of the country. They did enact many policies and laws and they have good professional teams working on particular issues of economics, sociology, etc. There are also plenty of talented, professional people working for the Hungarian government, and in the different ministries and offices. This entry says nothing about their work. This entry is simply about how FIDESZ is securing its popularity.
And as you can guess the fact that the way the ruling party is securing its popularity is 100% disconnected from the way it is running the country - and I do not mean a few sensationalist issues, like how it deals with producing schnaps at home - is scary. I'd bet a good bottle of wine that most people who are currently voters of FIDESZ have no idea and don't care at all about FIDESZ's work on economy, on how and whether it is doing anything for the education or the health sectors, on whether it has an energy strategy, and so on. What people buy are two things: i) the image of a strong leader, and ii) the image generated that the party is perpetually in action, non-stop working for "the Hungarian people".
If we look at both of these images it is easy to see that there isn't much content behind them. Orban is an average politician who gives good speeches but hasn't managed to carry out reform in any of the significantly problematic sectors of Hungarian life - he has no idea or policy to deal with poverty, he has no clue on how to deal with the segregation of the Roma population, no view on the increasing difference between incomes in other EU countries and incomes in Hungary, no initiative on strengthening new areas of the economy, no intent of reforming the old system of healthcare that is still at work in Hungary. And he is quite insignificant at a European level. What is sold at home is an image: an image of a man who cares, who loves his country and people, who is passionate about popular issues like soccer and the strength and security of the nation. Whether Orban is really like this, we don't know of course. As with actors and TV personalities we cannot assume that politicians profess their honest opinions when they appear in public.
The image that the party is in constant action is at least true. But the image sold of the actions of the party is an image of the party as being super-effective in governing the country. Now, this is not really true. Debt is roughly at the same level as it was 5 or 7 years ago. Employment rates are better but only because masses of people have left the country and work abroad, and simultaneously the government is employing throngs of people through local councils. Meanwhile we see Janos Lazar talking 3-4-5 times a day about all they have achieved, all they are doing. And what they are doing and selling doesn't make much sense. Think of our Foreign Minister Szijjarto's rampage of insulting politicians in neighboring countries in September and October.
The opposition parties struggle to do anything against this communication. Since FIDESZ is in charge of all the state owned TV and radio channels and their supporters are running several of the main newspapers it is very easy for them to get their message through to people. I'm not suggesting that they would repress others. (At least I don't know of any particular cases.) And to be honest, the opposition still has plenty of chances to communicate. But it does not have nearly anything as powerful as the government-communication mojo. No well-selling trademark faces, no outstanding speakers (except maybe for one or two in LMP and Jobbik), and no catchy, simple and easy-to-understand message-package.
What could be done in this situation to undermine the self-generated and self-promoted credibility of FIDESZ? Well, simply ignore them. Nobody should take Orban seriously. (We shouldn't do so anyway, so even better if ignoring him is a means to a good end.) We should simply not get into the debates as the government is framing them. There have been good attempts at this. When other parties pose uncomfortable questions the government does not do anything but talks down all accusations aggressively and people who already support them like this. But what if they are ignored?
What if others can offer imaginative, serious, interesting political options? I think that part of why Jobbik is currently the second most popular party in Hungary has less to do with their far-right, nationalistic, xenophobic and militant messages, and more with the fact that they present an easy to remember and clear line that isn't hard to imagine. Most voters won't think very hard about what they hear. They won't check whether the claims of a party add up. If it is easy to believe that they do, many voters will believe that party. Of course if one thinks through what Jobbik says one is horrified and at the same time realizes that it has no basis in reality, and doesn't work. (Just think of their laughable ideas about being a 'self-reliant' economy, or their fiasco in first supporting Syria, then the rebels against Assad, and now standing firmly against supporting Syrian refugees). But their (ridiculous) fantasies are still grasping for many people.
Now, let us believe that there are better grasping and motivating, touching and interesting political pictures which we can offer. And most importantly that there are pictures which are worth offering because they are closer to the truth, to a workable economic policy and international foreign policy. The task should be to craft political scenarios that can be formed into a likeable narrative, a story voters can identify with, that we can offer instead of Jobbik's nightmare and the products of FIDESZ's illusion factory. As such a task cannot be done by the old agents and the old parties - MSZP, DK, Együtt, etc. - clearly only LMP and Jobbik stand a chance from the currently existing parties to shift towards such a story. LMP has the better chances because they haven't already ruined their reputation amongst more careful reasoners in the way Jobbik did. But a new party's rise would also be welcome - provided it has nothing to do with any of the oldies (Gyurcsány and Bajnai also count as oldies with no credibility).
The Hungarian government and the war on refugees and migrants
I have spent the last few months back at home in good old Hungary. Most Hungarians I know think that this country is the center of the universe and they are blatantly ignorant of world politics, economics, the history and culture of Hungary itself, and in general about sociological facts. In fact, most people don't give a damn about Hungary. Which is fair enough: it is insignificant on the global stage.
But this time around it was all different: for a few brief weeks the attention of the other EU countries was actually directed at Hungary, mainly due to Viktor Orban's and his governments' actions taken to discourage and to prevent refugees and migrants from entering Hungary.
Hungary is just like any other country: our politicians say different things on the international stage and during high profile visits to foreign high ranking officials from what they say at home. The same is true of how they handle the refugee-'crisis'. While in Hungary the government launched a billboard campaign against refugees already early this Spring, when PM Orban gave an interview to German newspaper Bild he talked about how sorry he feels for refugees and how he is looking for constructive solutions.
Well, he obviously hasn't found any because at the moment not a single refugee, asylum seeker, or migrant is allowed into the country through any legal channel. (This is of course technically not true: people can apply for asylum seeker status but the procedure is ridiculously slow and the results so far have been uniformly negative. Refugees might as well put their hopes on a lottery ticket rather than apply to Hungary for shelter.)
Currently the government is running a campaign to collect signatures from civilians to show that people oppose the EU's policy of distributing refugees amongst the member states. Of course a lot of Hungarians - who are either deceived, or stupid, or xenophobic, or lazy to get enough info, etc. - support this and quite a few signatures have already been collected. Furthermore, as PM Orban told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung "we" don't want a multicultural society, and "we" feel very well about being patriotic (which he thinks is contrary to being liberal). I guess the PM must have been talking about himself in the royal plural, or about his family and circle of close friends. Me, many friends, and a good number of other Hungarians surely don't feel very excited about not being a multicultural country nor about being very patriotic (if that means not-being liberal).
The current new trend in the rhetoric of our primy and his aids is to suggest connections between the recent attacks in Paris and the influx of refugees and migrants. Whereas the facts are that the attacks were organized by members of a number of loosely connected and internationally established radical Islamist organizations. Organizing them must have taken time. The attackers required guns, explosives, careful planning, etc. What does our primy and his best minds come up with? That letting refugees who are fleeing from wars, and letting migrants fleeing poverty, into our country, and in the EU at all, should be banned. Why? Because they will become terrorists and shoot more people. Not the most brilliant thinking. But we are used to that by now.
At times like this I really wish that the government should be more accountable, similarly to the way people can be held accountable within a company. If members of the government are speaking such utter rubbish why can't we fire these guys?
But this time around it was all different: for a few brief weeks the attention of the other EU countries was actually directed at Hungary, mainly due to Viktor Orban's and his governments' actions taken to discourage and to prevent refugees and migrants from entering Hungary.
Hungary is just like any other country: our politicians say different things on the international stage and during high profile visits to foreign high ranking officials from what they say at home. The same is true of how they handle the refugee-'crisis'. While in Hungary the government launched a billboard campaign against refugees already early this Spring, when PM Orban gave an interview to German newspaper Bild he talked about how sorry he feels for refugees and how he is looking for constructive solutions.
Well, he obviously hasn't found any because at the moment not a single refugee, asylum seeker, or migrant is allowed into the country through any legal channel. (This is of course technically not true: people can apply for asylum seeker status but the procedure is ridiculously slow and the results so far have been uniformly negative. Refugees might as well put their hopes on a lottery ticket rather than apply to Hungary for shelter.)
Currently the government is running a campaign to collect signatures from civilians to show that people oppose the EU's policy of distributing refugees amongst the member states. Of course a lot of Hungarians - who are either deceived, or stupid, or xenophobic, or lazy to get enough info, etc. - support this and quite a few signatures have already been collected. Furthermore, as PM Orban told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung "we" don't want a multicultural society, and "we" feel very well about being patriotic (which he thinks is contrary to being liberal). I guess the PM must have been talking about himself in the royal plural, or about his family and circle of close friends. Me, many friends, and a good number of other Hungarians surely don't feel very excited about not being a multicultural country nor about being very patriotic (if that means not-being liberal).
The current new trend in the rhetoric of our primy and his aids is to suggest connections between the recent attacks in Paris and the influx of refugees and migrants. Whereas the facts are that the attacks were organized by members of a number of loosely connected and internationally established radical Islamist organizations. Organizing them must have taken time. The attackers required guns, explosives, careful planning, etc. What does our primy and his best minds come up with? That letting refugees who are fleeing from wars, and letting migrants fleeing poverty, into our country, and in the EU at all, should be banned. Why? Because they will become terrorists and shoot more people. Not the most brilliant thinking. But we are used to that by now.
At times like this I really wish that the government should be more accountable, similarly to the way people can be held accountable within a company. If members of the government are speaking such utter rubbish why can't we fire these guys?
Monday 16 November 2015
Revamp, relaunch, rename
I have ignored blogging for a longer period. Most of my time was consumed by the research done for my doctoral degree in Philosophy and by my part-time job.
Now the submission of the thesis is finally within reach. So I can afford the luxury of sharing my opinion with the world wide web again.
I will mainly deal with what politicians say, compare this with what they do and what facts are available. Sometimes there will be forays into my fields of specialization (Philosophy of Action, Ethics) and bits on literature, movies, traveling and running.
Now the submission of the thesis is finally within reach. So I can afford the luxury of sharing my opinion with the world wide web again.
I will mainly deal with what politicians say, compare this with what they do and what facts are available. Sometimes there will be forays into my fields of specialization (Philosophy of Action, Ethics) and bits on literature, movies, traveling and running.
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