A very interesting thing I realized while at home in Hungary is that the currently ruling party, FIDESZ, rules simply by selling people stories. (I treat FIDESZ as the ruling party. Let's be honest, the Christian Democratic People's Party, KDNP, is just in it for the fun and does not contribute much.)
I'm not saying that the government isn't doing anything in the interest of the country. They did enact many policies and laws and they have good professional teams working on particular issues of economics, sociology, etc. There are also plenty of talented, professional people working for the Hungarian government, and in the different ministries and offices. This entry says nothing about their work. This entry is simply about how FIDESZ is securing its popularity.
And as you can guess the fact that the way the ruling party is securing its popularity is 100% disconnected from the way it is running the country - and I do not mean a few sensationalist issues, like how it deals with producing schnaps at home - is scary. I'd bet a good bottle of wine that most people who are currently voters of FIDESZ have no idea and don't care at all about FIDESZ's work on economy, on how and whether it is doing anything for the education or the health sectors, on whether it has an energy strategy, and so on. What people buy are two things: i) the image of a strong leader, and ii) the image generated that the party is perpetually in action, non-stop working for "the Hungarian people".
If we look at both of these images it is easy to see that there isn't much content behind them. Orban is an average politician who gives good speeches but hasn't managed to carry out reform in any of the significantly problematic sectors of Hungarian life - he has no idea or policy to deal with poverty, he has no clue on how to deal with the segregation of the Roma population, no view on the increasing difference between incomes in other EU countries and incomes in Hungary, no initiative on strengthening new areas of the economy, no intent of reforming the old system of healthcare that is still at work in Hungary. And he is quite insignificant at a European level. What is sold at home is an image: an image of a man who cares, who loves his country and people, who is passionate about popular issues like soccer and the strength and security of the nation. Whether Orban is really like this, we don't know of course. As with actors and TV personalities we cannot assume that politicians profess their honest opinions when they appear in public.
The image that the party is in constant action is at least true. But the image sold of the actions of the party is an image of the party as being super-effective in governing the country. Now, this is not really true. Debt is roughly at the same level as it was 5 or 7 years ago. Employment rates are better but only because masses of people have left the country and work abroad, and simultaneously the government is employing throngs of people through local councils. Meanwhile we see Janos Lazar talking 3-4-5 times a day about all they have achieved, all they are doing. And what they are doing and selling doesn't make much sense. Think of our Foreign Minister Szijjarto's rampage of insulting politicians in neighboring countries in September and October.
The opposition parties struggle to do anything against this communication. Since FIDESZ is in charge of all the state owned TV and radio channels and their supporters are running several of the main newspapers it is very easy for them to get their message through to people. I'm not suggesting that they would repress others. (At least I don't know of any particular cases.) And to be honest, the opposition still has plenty of chances to communicate. But it does not have nearly anything as powerful as the government-communication mojo. No well-selling trademark faces, no outstanding speakers (except maybe for one or two in LMP and Jobbik), and no catchy, simple and easy-to-understand message-package.
What could be done in this situation to undermine the self-generated and self-promoted credibility of FIDESZ? Well, simply ignore them. Nobody should take Orban seriously. (We shouldn't do so anyway, so even better if ignoring him is a means to a good end.) We should simply not get into the debates as the government is framing them. There have been good attempts at this. When other parties pose uncomfortable questions the government does not do anything but talks down all accusations aggressively and people who already support them like this. But what if they are ignored?
What if others can offer imaginative, serious, interesting political options? I think that part of why Jobbik is currently the second most popular party in Hungary has less to do with their far-right, nationalistic, xenophobic and militant messages, and more with the fact that they present an easy to remember and clear line that isn't hard to imagine. Most voters won't think very hard about what they hear. They won't check whether the claims of a party add up. If it is easy to believe that they do, many voters will believe that party. Of course if one thinks through what Jobbik says one is horrified and at the same time realizes that it has no basis in reality, and doesn't work. (Just think of their laughable ideas about being a 'self-reliant' economy, or their fiasco in first supporting Syria, then the rebels against Assad, and now standing firmly against supporting Syrian refugees). But their (ridiculous) fantasies are still grasping for many people.
Now, let us believe that there are better grasping and motivating, touching and interesting political pictures which we can offer. And most importantly that there are pictures which are worth offering because they are closer to the truth, to a workable economic policy and international foreign policy. The task should be to craft political scenarios that can be formed into a likeable narrative, a story voters can identify with, that we can offer instead of Jobbik's nightmare and the products of FIDESZ's illusion factory. As such a task cannot be done by the old agents and the old parties - MSZP, DK, Együtt, etc. - clearly only LMP and Jobbik stand a chance from the currently existing parties to shift towards such a story. LMP has the better chances because they haven't already ruined their reputation amongst more careful reasoners in the way Jobbik did. But a new party's rise would also be welcome - provided it has nothing to do with any of the oldies (Gyurcsány and Bajnai also count as oldies with no credibility).
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